Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected
geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
A review of the author’s bio told me that he’s a California attorney who, after studying the ideas of Peak Oil (better known as
The Hubbert peak theory, which posits that as oil passes it’s apex the costs associated will be catastrophic), resigned himself to the idea that the career, wife and children he thought he’d enjoy into old age were no longer an option, because the world is going to end. Well, I have a wife and kids, and since I have more skins in the game than this character, I choose not to participate in his apocalypse.
Futurists annoy me. I recall reading in 9th grade social studies Thomas Robert Malthus’ rosy words:
"While population increases geometrically, the food supply increases incrementally."
He said this in 1804 when the world population was 1 billion. His prediction of world doom never came to be. There is hunger for sure, but not because of scarce resources, but because of corrupt governments and horrendous distribution. Fix those issues and hunger ceases as a persistent problem. We have enough food.
Here is what my older brother said in a recent email to someone who decried the percentage of world resources we currently use in America:
I read the MSNBC article, and didn’t see much new there, except that Chinese provinces are re-thinking their policy of discouraging small cars.
As far as your note above, here is something from the eminent Canadian right wing whacko Mark Steyn, excerpted from his recent article, "It’s the Demography. Stupid" OpinionJournal – Extra , which was in the Reactionary Rag AKA the Wall Street Journal:
The Western world has delivered more wealth and more comfort to more of its citizens than any other civilization in history, and in return we’ve developed a great cult of worrying. You know the classics of the genre: In 1968, in his bestselling book "The Population Bomb," the eminent scientist Paul Ehrlich declared: "In the 1970s the world will undergo famines–hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." In 1972, in their landmark study "The Limits to Growth," the Club of Rome announced that the world would run out of gold by 1981, of mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and gas by 1993.
None of these things happened. In fact, quite the opposite is happening. We’re pretty much awash in resources, but we’re running out of people–the one truly indispensable resource, without which none of the others matter. Russia’s the most obvious example: it’s the largest country on earth, it’s full of natural resources, and yet it’s dying–its population is falling calamitously.
I was taught much of the above, at Fairfield University, in 1972 and 1973, by the late ecology specialist Dr. Salvatore Bongiorno, who I did ecology courses with, as well as a senior research project. I read "The Limits of Growth".
Now here’s some more bad news, unless you’re a member of ZPG (or you’re a diehard Republican). Again it’s from Steyn’s opinion piece:
the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they’re running out a lot faster than the oil is. "Replacement" fertility rate–i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller–is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?
Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you’ll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada’s fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That’s to say, Spain’s population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy’s population will have fallen by 22%, Bulgaria’s by 36%, Estonia’s by 52%. In America, demographic trends suggest that the blue states ought to apply for honorary membership of the EU: In the 2004 election, John Kerry won the 16 with the lowest birthrates; George W. Bush took 25 of the 26 states with the highest. By 2050, there will be 100 million fewer Europeans, 100 million more Americans–and mostly red-state Americans.
When your daughter is my age, the world is going to be even more transformed than it has been since the early sixties – but it wont be for lack of energy sources.
Another person more intelligent than I (and unlike my brother Tom, better looking) added the significant point that technology will trump depletion. For instance, for 99.99% of recorded time silicon was useless to most modern applications. Moreover, there are vast fortunes to be made in fuel innovation and other technology which will render current practices and business as usual obsolete. If you follow the money, you’ll find the future. Personally, I find money more compelling than zero-sum game theory anyway.
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J. Philip Faranda
